Download the latest student enrollment projections report here:
In a detailed report by the New England School Development Council (NESDEC), Cape Elizabeth’s school enrollment trends and future projections were analyzed and updated, offering crucial insights for the School Building Advisory Committee’s planning.
A significant finding in the latest report is the projected change in enrollments over the next few years. The report predicts an increase of 28 students in Grades K-4, a rise of 20 students in Grades 5-8, and a decrease of 73 students in Grades 9-12 as current students advance through the system. These projections are vital for understanding the shifts in school capacity needs and preparing for future infrastructure requirements.
Looking further out, the report projects a longer term enrollment increase of up to 8.6% over the coming decade. The reason provided to the committee by the NESDEC was the following: “In early November 2023, the State of Maine released their birth data and there is an increase for Birth Year 2022 for your district, which has an impact on SY 2027-28 and beyond. The birth number increased from 59 to 74.”
NESDEC emphasizes the reliability of their enrollment projections, particularly for the immediate 1-4 years into the future, while acknowledging that projections for six to ten years out serve more as a planning guide and are subject to change based on various demographic trends such as migration rates and birth rates.
This report also touches on the broader trends in New England’s PK-12 enrollments. While most districts in the region are experiencing a decline in birth numbers, the impact on enrollment varies greatly. Almost half of the districts in New England have seen growth in PK-12 enrollment, while others, especially in rural areas, are declining. This variation underscores the importance of tailored, district-specific planning and resource allocation.
Overall, the NESDEC report offers a critical tool for the Cape Elizabeth School District, assisting in the strategic planning and forward-thinking necessary for addressing current and future educational needs. With its detailed enrollment projections and analysis, the report forms a foundational element in guiding the district’s infrastructure and program planning efforts.